Showing posts with label economy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economy. Show all posts

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

My Questions for President Obama

President Obama is taking your questions on the economy. The White House is open for questions. This is your chance to be heard...

You can submit both a text and video question... and vote on questions you like. Finally, the best part is when President Obama will answer some of the popular questions live in town hall format on Thursday morning at 11:30 am EST.
I submitted my own questions today for the first time for President Obama and the White House:

"When will the government provide incentives to entrepreneurs and innovators who are creating new businesses, new products, new opportunities? This would be analogous to having a seed investor in a new company with no revenue, however a viable plan."
SanjayD, Irvine, CA - Small Business

"Many large universities have huge endowment funds. When will the universities use these funds to lower the cost of tuition for students? In addition, can the universities provide incentives such as free tuition to needy students?"
SanjayD, Irvine, CA - Education

So, I am speaking out, and asking our President a couple of questions... so should you! So go ahead and ask your questions on the economy, small business, education, home ownership, healthcare, veterans, small business, auto, retirement security, green and energy, financial stability, jobs and budget!

Did you read my last article on asking questions? Creativity begins with asking questions, innovation happens when you find answers... Check out this article... I would love to hear your views.

Go here to ask your question...

Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Import Export Business And The Economy

Question:

I am going to order your program next month, but I was wonder, if the economy is such a crappy mess, is Import/Export Business hard to get into?

Answer:

Thanks for the opportunity to answer your question. It is one that
I thought I had answered this question in one of my blog posts but
upon reviewing it this morning it does not appear that I have done so.

I will try to keep my answer from getting political, but it is difficult
not to reference some of the reasons our economy is in the mess
it is in.

First, let me address your basic question. Is the Import Export
business hard to get into?

The quick answer to your question is Yes, it is a hard business
to succeed in whether the economy is good or bad.

In fact, it is hard to succeed at any business at any time and
the economy does play a role in how difficult it will be and
right now, it is much, much more difficult to succeed in ANY
business.

The fact that this business, or any business, is difficult to
succeed at is a fact the "hype" masters of the Internet and
opportunity magazines seem to ignore. It can best be summed
up in a Chinese proverb I just posted last night in our
Import Export business blog - the proverb is this -

“Fish see the bait, but not the hook. Men see the profit, but not the peril.”

International trade or trade between businesses in different
countries has been going on since the beginning of mankind.

There have always been obstacles placed in front of them and
these obstacles can be in the form of mountains, rivers, oceans,
thieves, and the biggest thief and obstacle of all, governments.

Governments create obstacles whether through the manipulation
of their economies or supposed protection of the industries
within their borders from less expensive goods coming in and
threatening the status quo.

Governments try to regulate things that most often will work
their way through, if the government would just let their hands
off of it in the first place.

We human beings have a tendency to believe that the persons
making up our governments have a better understanding of how
business should be run than the people who are actually working
in that business, yet most government employees and elected
officials have "never" run a profitable business.

And the people who make up our governments are just as
subject to greed and envy as all human beings and in some
instances I believe they are more subject to it.

Sorry, I am getting off on a rant here but in regards to starting
your business, you must decide if the Import Export business
is really what you want to do. It is not a hyped up business
"opportunity", it is a serious business and what our course
offers is "training" on how to start that type of business.

If you are serious about starting an import export business,
then do not wait around for the economy to turn, get started
learning what you need to know to succeed now. Then when
the economy finally does turn around, you will be that much
ahead of everyone else who sat on their hands waiting for
an imagined government solution.

One of the biggest obstacles to international trade, right
now, is financing or letters of credit.

Banks no longer trust each other, both within the USA and
from one country to another and this means you or a
manufacturer you work with as an agent or broker is going
to have a much more difficult time getting a buyer to get
a letter of credit and secondly have the manufacturer's
bank accept that letter of credit (loc).

The course will discuss financing options and where you
or the manufacturer can go to get financing if that is the
only method by which a buyer can make a purchase.

There are other alternatives to financing depending upon
the amount of the purchase. Credit cards often have a
line of credit large enough for a buyer to make the purchase
if an loc is not an accepted solution. Direct bank wire
transfers are still another option.

If a buyer really has a market for the product(s) you are
helping a manufacturer sell, the buyer will find a way of
paying for them.

So the bottom line, in answer to your original question,
is YES it is more difficult today than just a few months ago
but if you are serious about your interest in this business,
then begin learning the "how to" now and you will be in
a much better position to capitalize on the turnaround
once it comes.

If you make the decision to get started now, do not wait
for a turnaround, begin looking at markets that are still
moving goods. Food is a commodity that will always
be needed and the USA still leads the world in food
production.

In finishing this LONG answer to a SHORT question,
let me cite how difficult trade can be and then begin to
think about how much easier a path you have than
the following example.

Over the past weekend there was an episode of the
show "Globetrotter" on one of the PBS stations. I
missed the first part of it but saw enough to impress
me on how easy our lives and businesses have it
in comparison to other people in the world.

The 'globetrotter' on this episode was a young lady who
(when I picked up the show) was walking across a barren
desert in an African country (I think it was part of the
Sahara).

She had joined a trader's caravan from a desert oasis
where they grow fruits and vegetables. The people and
their camels were walking across the desert as these people
have done for thousands of years to take their goods to
a city where they would trade their goods for "salt".

The salt is required for both the people and their animals
due to the intense desert heat.

Most of the people in the caravan were walking and the
narrator stated how they would cover 50-60 miles a day!

I think they said it was a 17 day round trip and the city
where they traded their goods for salt was about 600 miles
from their oasis.

Once they got to the city, they made their trades and
loaded 4 very heavy pillars of salt on the camels and
began their journey back to their oasis.

This is what these people have been doing for thousands
of years and in my humble opinion, nothing that is currently
facing us in regards to the economy even comes close to
the hardships these 'traders' face on a continual basis.

So, yes, it will be more difficult to succeed in the import
export business today than just 6 months ago, but if this
is the business you wish to pursue, then you need to make
the decision that once you learn the "how to" that nothing
is going to stop you which brings up another proverb or
old saying I once heard many years ago.

"Let the dogs bark but the caravan moves on"

You can liken that to the first caravan that ever made that
long, hot and fateful journey across the Sahara. There
were probably more people telling them it would fail than
succeed but in the end, the caravan left those barking dogs
behind and moved on.

Hope this helps you make a more informed decision.

*** There was a brief follow up to the above answer that I
remembered a few days later that I had intended to include,
that additional answer is as follows:

Just wanted to follow up with you since there was one other
comment I wanted to include in the previous reply shown below.

It basically involves how in today's lousy economic environment
and a general distrust of investing your money with any
institution, the very best thing you can invest in is yourself.

Once you gain knowledge about a new subject, the investment
will last for a life time. No one can ever take it away from you
and the growth of that investment is solely dependent upon
you and the actions you take, not an investment advisor,
banker, etc..

So if there is any ONE place I would recommend for someone
to invest right now or for that matter, any time, is in educating
yourself.

For further information about Import Export or other International
business resources, visit the International Business Help Center

and be sure to take your time looking around the 285 web pages
that make up this premier web site.

Ron Coble
Coble International Business Services

Thursday, November 6, 2008

Proctor and Gamble - P&G Innovating and Growing Strong in a Tough Economy

Did you know that Proctor and Gamble - P&G makes all these cool products below that you use everyday in your house?

You betcha... from Duracell and Gillette to Crest, Charmin to Tide, Bounty to Iams - P&G is the world's largest consumer goods company. As a matter of fact, "three billion times a day, P&G brands touch the lives of people around the world." P&G has a bigger mission that they are trying to fulfill: "Provide branded products and services of superior quality and value that improve the lives of the world's consumers, now and for generations to come."

P&G is one of the Top 20 innovators of the Innovation Index.

P&G stock is doing relatively well compared to its peers and the major indexes. Here is a snapshot of how well P&G is holding up - only down a few percentage points in 1 year, whereas the markets are down more than 30 points:

Why is P&G doing so well?

One answer: Innovation. Innovation driving new business, innovation driving growth, innovative leadership by the CEO of P&G A.G. Lafley. Back in February 2008, I had talked about how P&G is a Smart Long Term Buy in a Turbulent Market. IIG has stayed long with P&G througout the year, and has been opportunistically adding positions in P&G as well. Another fact that most investors may not know about: Barclays Global Investors and Berkshire Hathaway (Warren Buffett's company) are the top two institutional holders of P&G.

How did P&G do in the latest quarter?

P&G announced net sales growth of nine percent for the July - September quarter to $22.0 billion. Organic sales were up five percent, delivering at the mid-point of the Company's four to six percent target range. Sales growth was led by strong growth in the Beauty, Fabric Care & Home Care and Baby Care & Family Care segments. Diluted net earnings per share increased 12 percent to $1.03 for the quarter.

"This quarter was yet another example of the strength of P&G's balanced brand and geographic portfolio," said Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer A.G. Lafley. "We continue focusing on leading innovation and improving productivity to deliver superior consumer and shareholder value. This focus on delighting consumers with trusted household and personal care products that consumers purchase weekly and use daily gives me continuing confidence P&G will deliver target growth over the long term, even in a challenging economic environment."

What is sexy, new and exciting that P&G is innovating?

P&G recently introduced Cascade Complete All-in-1 ActionPacs.

Cascade Complete All-in-1 ActionPacs "give you the confidence of a job done right. It breaks down, dissolves, and rinses away tough food particles without the need to pre-wash."

Here is what one highly satisfied P&G customer had to say about All-in-1 ActionPacs:

OMG this is the most amazing product

"I have an older dishwasher that came with the apartment I live in. You had to completely wash the dishes before putting them in the dishwasher. I was basically using it to drain the dishes. I saw this on T.V. and went to walmart and got it. All I can say is it is almost magical the way it cleans. I tested it on several hard to wash dishes, dried oatmeal, dried rice krispy cereal and my stainless steel pots and everything came out clean, no stuck on food, no hard water residue. thank you! thank you! thank you! what a time saver. I am disabled and one of the hardest things to do is standing over the sink washing dishes."
By beadjeannie. Reviewer from Fresno, CA August 14, 2008

Bottomline:

P&G is a great company with great leadership and employees, and highly satisfied customers. P&G will be around for the next 100 years. IIG - Innovation Index Group is long on P&G, and believes that P&G provides attractive buying opportunity at current price points. We believe that P&G will continue to grow another 10% to 15% even in this economy because of the breadth of its products, creativity and innovation, global marketshare, and delighted customers who will not buy another brand.

Innovation Index Reports

Introducing The Innovation Index
Annual Report 2007 - The Innovation Index gains 66%
Measuring Business Innovation Success
Innovation Index Group BUY Recommendations
Q1 2008 Report - Innovation Index ahead of S&P 500
Q2 2008 Report - Top Innovators Deliver
The Innovation Index Fund FAQ
Top 50 Innovative Companies in the world
Annual Report - Chapter One - Total Innovation Activity
Annual Report - Chapter Two - The Top Innovator
Annual Report - Chapter Three - The Innovation Insights
Innovation and Stock Performance Correlation
Future earnings guidance, A leading indicator
Smart Investing In Tough Economic Times
To Sell Or Not To Sell - You Decide
Creativity and Innovation Best Practices
Creativity and Innovation Case Studies

About the Innovation Index

The Innovation Index introduced in December 2006 is a weighted stock price index of the top 20 Innovators in North America.The Innovation Index returned 66% in 2007 based on performance model, and would have returned 174% over the previous five years (2002-2006) based on historical model*. This assumes equal investment in each stock of The Innovation Index as of December 31, 2001. An average of $100 invested in The Innovation Index on December 31, 2001 returned $454 as of December 31, 2007. By comparison, $100 invested in S&P 500 returned 28% or $129, $100 invested in NASDAQ returned 34% or $136, and $100 invested in the Dow Jones Index returned 30% or $131 through December 31, 2007. The Innovation Index beats the S & P 500, NASDAQ and Dow Jones Index by more than seven times over the past six years.

Alphabetical list of the Top 20 Innovators of The Innovation Index for 2008 and their stock ticker symbols:

3M Company - (NYSE: MMM)
Amazon.com, Inc. - (NASDAQ: AMZN)
America Movil - (NYSE: AMX)
Apple Inc. - (NASDAQ: AAPL)
AT&T Inc. - (NYSE: T)
Best Buy Co., Inc. - (NYSE: BBY)
Cisco Systems, Inc. - (NASDAQ: CSCO)
Costco Wholesale Corporation - (NASDAQ: COST)
eBay Inc. - (NASDAQ: EBAY)
General Electric Co. - (NYSE: GE)
Google Inc. - (NASDAQ: GOOG)
Hewlett-Packard Co. - (NYSE: HPQ)
Intel Corporation - (NASDAQ: INTC)
International Business Machines Corp. - (NYSE: IBM)
Merck & Co., Inc. - (NYSE: MRK)
McDonald's Corporation (NYSE: MCD)
Microsoft Corporation - (NASDAQ: MSFT)
NIKE, Inc. - (NYSE: NKE)
Research In Motion Limited - (NASDAQ: RIMM)
The Proctor & Gamble Company - (NYSE: PG)

The Innovation Index will analyze the positions and standings of the Top 20 Innovators at the end of each year. For 2008, there will be no further changes in The Innovation Index.

Disclaimer: The Innovation Index Group, Inc. invests in the stocks comprising The Innovation Index.
*Past Performance Does Not Guarantee Future Results

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Innovator Apple grows strong on surging iPhone demand

Apple profits are up 26% on iPhone boom. Apple shares were up 14% in after hours after Apple announced the earnings report. IIG is in excellent shape with Apple!

The best part of Apple earnings: CEO Steve Jobs attended the earnings call (which is quite rare), and had this to say:

Earnings Call: Jobs Says iPhone Revs Total $4.6B, Making Apple The Third-Largest Handset Maker

Apple (NasdaqGS: AAPL - News) CEO Steve Jobs made a special guest appearance on the company's earnings call to brag about the iPhone's stellar fourth-quarter performance, and to give his two-cents on how the consumer-electronics and computer company will be affected by the economic crisis as we head into the holiday shopping season. First, Apple's CFO Peter Oppenheimer explained Apple's new practice going forward of reporting non-GAAP financial results. Because the iPhone and Apple TV may provide free updates in the future, they are forced to spread out revenues for the devices over their lifetimes. Going forward, Apple will also report a non-GAAP financial measure that allows people to see how well the iPhone and Apple sales are currently doing. Under this new form of reporting, Oppenheimer said adjusted sales totaled $11.7 billion, or about $3.8 billion higher than its reported revenue, and adjusted net income was $2.4 billion, jumping by $1.3 billion than reported net income. "We believe this adds transparency to our business, and is helpful to you." Oppenheimer said because of the uncertainty in the market, they are going to be prudent in predicting results for the September quarter. He said Apple is targeting revenue of $9 to $10 billion and earnings per share between $1.06 and $1.35.

In a rare appearance, Steve Jobs joined the conference call to provide his outlook on the economy and detail the iPhone's Q4 performance. Jobs: "There's some remarkable things happening at Apple, but now it's all being done in front of the back drop of the economic global slowdown." Notes from the call, as reported by PaidContent.org :

-- On iPhone growth: Using the non-GAAP figures, Jobs said in the past quarter, the iPhone business has grown to $4.6 billion, representing 39 percent of Apple's overall revenues. "Clearly, it's too big for Apple or investors to ignore. The non-GAAP results are truly stunning." He said adjusted sales for the quarter are 48 percent higher than GAAP sales, and adjusted net income is 115 percent higher than reported net income. "It's more than double than reported net income...If this isn't stunning than I don't know what is, and it's all because of the success of the iPhone 3G."

-- On volume: Jobs said by selling 6.9 million iPhones during the quarter, Apple was able to beat RIM (NasdaqGS: RIMM - News), which sold 6.1 million Blackberry devices. "Apple outsold RIM last quarter. This is a milestone," considering Apple has only been in the market for 15 months.

-- Ranking by revenues: Jobs now claims that by revenues, Apple is the third largest mobile phone supplier in the world. Nokia (NYSE: NOK - News), is No. 1 at $12.7 billion; Samsung is No. 2 at $5.98 billion; Apple is No. 3 at $4.6 billion; Sony (NYSE: SNE - News) Ericsson (NasdaqGS: ERIC - News) is No. 4 at $4.2 billion; LG (SEO: 066570), No. 5, at $3.4 billion; Motorola (NYSE: MOT - News), No. 6, at $3.2 billion and RIM, No. 7, at $2.1 billion. "It's pretty amazing," but Jobs cautioned that they were able to sell that many by increasing the number of countries to 51 from 6, and that it's unclear if they can sustain that pace.

-- On the App Store: Jobs said tomorrow they will achieve the 200 millionth download from the App store after being available for only 102 days. "This is one area where we have completely changed the value proposition for mobile devices...We've never seen anything like this." Today, the App store has roughly 5,500 apps, which are being distributed in 62 countries. "Competitors are scrambling to copy our app store."

-- On the economy: Jobs told analysts and press on the call that they believe they will do fine because they have have good customers, good products, good employees, and $25 billion in cash and zero debt. Jobs: We will increase our R&D investments because they created some of the best products in the last downturn. "It is an extraordinary opportunity for companies that have the cash."

Apple shipped 2,611,000 Macintosh(R) computers during the quarter, representing 21 percent unit growth and 17 percent revenue growth over the year-ago quarter. The Company sold 11,052,000 iPods during the quarter, representing eight percent unit growth and three percent revenue growth over the year-ago quarter. Quarterly iPhone units sold were 6,892,000 compared to 1,119,000 in the year-ago-quarter.

Bottomline:
Apple revenue are up 27% and earnings are up 27% from prior year. Gross margin was 34.7 percent, up from 33.6 percent in the year-ago quarter. International sales accounted for 41 percent of the quarter's revenue. Traditionally, the last quarter of the year is Apple's best quarter. Considering the current economic downturn, even with a 20% conservative revenue and earnings growth, Apple will deliver $11.5 billion in revenue, and $1.89 billion in earnings; however, Apple is only providing guidance of $9 billion to $10 billion in revenue, and a broad range in earnings. Apple is definitely "low-balling" the guidance because of the current economy. Apple iPhone is a money making machine, and the iPhone will have even a greater impact on the earnings and revenue for the next quarter owing to Apple's accounting. Expect Apple to deliver another strong quarter, unless the economy completely unbuckles. Innovation Index Group has a BUY rating on Apple, and has a 12 month price target in the range of $160 to $190.

Innovation Index Reports

About The Innovation Index

The Innovation Index introduced in December 2006 is a weighted stock price index of the top 20 Innovators in North America.

The Innovation Index returned 66% in 2007 based on performance model, and would have returned 174% over the previous five years (2002-2006) based on historical model*. This assumes equal investment in each stock of The Innovation Index as of December 31, 2001. An average of $100 invested in The Innovation Index on December 31, 2001 returned $454 as of December 31, 2007. By comparison, $100 invested in S & P 500 returned 28% or $129, $100 invested in NASDAQ returned 34% or $136, and $100 invested in the Dow Jones Index returned 30% or $131 through December 31, 2007. The Innovation Index beats the S & P 500, NASDAQ and Dow Jones Index by more than seven times over the past six years.*

Alphabetical list of the Top 20 Innovators of The Innovation Index for 2008 and their stock ticker symbols:

3M Company - (NYSE: MMM)
Amazon.com, Inc. - (NASDAQ: AMZN)
America Movil - (NYSE: AMX)
Apple Inc. - (NASDAQ: AAPL)
AT&T Inc. - (NYSE: T)
Best Buy Co., Inc. - (NYSE: BBY)
Cisco Systems, Inc. - (NASDAQ: CSCO)
Costco Wholesale Corporation - (NASDAQ: COST)
eBay Inc. - (NASDAQ: EBAY)
General Electric Co. - (NYSE: GE)
Google Inc. - (NASDAQ: GOOG)
Hewlett-Packard Co. - (NYSE: HPQ)
Intel Corporation - (NASDAQ: INTC)
International Business Machines Corp. - (NYSE: IBM)
Merck & Co., Inc. - (NYSE: MRK)
McDonald's Corporation (NYSE: MCD)
Microsoft Corporation - (NASDAQ: MSFT)
NIKE, Inc. - (NYSE: NKE)
Research In Motion Limited - (NASDAQ: RIMM)
The Proctor & Gamble Company - (NYSE: PG)

The Innovation Index will analyze the positions and standings of the Top 20 Innovators at the end of each year. For 2008, there will be no further changes in The Innovation Index.

Disclaimer: The Innovation Index Group, Inc. invests in the stocks comprising The Innovation Index.
*Past Performance Does Not Guarantee Future Results



Innovator Google is still growing strong

Google delivered big this week!! And so did IBM earlier in the week. Apple is next and P&G to follow... our innovators are growing strong in tough economy. When the going gets tough, the tough get going! Google shares were up after earnings release!!

In a separate story, Warren Buffett came out telling everyone to BUY for the long-term:

Buffett's optimism is based primarily on the following:

  • "Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors."
  • Cash is trash. "Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable," he writes. "They shouldn't. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value."

Here is an analysis on Google and IBM:

Google Inc., owner of the most popular Internet search engine, advanced in Nasdaq trading after reporting profit that topped analysts' estimates, saying customers are still buying Web ads even as the economy slows. (Bloomberg reference)

While advertisers of home and auto loans cut back, makers of apparel and appliances kept spending, Chief Financial Officer Patrick Pichette said. Consumers continue to shop online, he said, with clicks on ads climbing 18 percent, near the previous quarter's 19 percent growth.

Google results, combined with better-than-anticipated reports from International Business Machines Corp. cheered investors after a decline in technology shares this month. Google showed resilience in a weakening economy, said Mark May, an analyst at Needham & Co. in New York.

``This really shows we need to give them the benefit of the doubt,'' said May, who recommends buying the shares (of Google). ``They should be able to weather the storm fairly well.''

Google's third-quarter net income rose 26 percent to $1.35 billion, or $4.24 a share, from $1.07 billion, or $3.38, a year earlier. Leaving out costs such as stock-based compensation, profit was $4.92 a share, beating the $4.75 average estimate of analysts in a Bloomberg survey.

Google, based in Mountain View, California, rose $18.03, or 5.1 percent, to $371.05 on the Nasdaq Stock Market at 9:50 a.m. New York time, after earlier reaching $378.97. The shares had dropped 49 percent this year before today.

Advertising Shift

Advertisers are cutting back on TV and print media spending in favor of ads that run alongside search listings. The Internet will account for 8.7 percent of the $284 billion in U.S. ad spending this year, up from 7.2 percent in 2007, according to Barclays Capital.

Excluding revenue passed on to partner sites, Google's sales expanded to $4.04 billion last quarter. Total revenue climbed 31 percent to $5.54 billion.

At least eight analysts had reduced their estimates for Google's third quarter this month after the global credit crisis erupted. That made it easier for the company to beat the average profit estimates yesterday.

``This was exactly the kind of shot in the arm that investors need,'' said Jeff Lindsay, an analyst with Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. in New York. ``People lost a lot of faith in the Internet, but this is exactly what the doctor ordered.''

New Contracts

IBM, based in Armonk, New York, said yesterday it signed $12.7 billion in contracts last quarter, topping the estimate of as much as $11 billion from Cowen & Co. analyst Louis Miscioscia. Winning contracts with the Royal Dutch Navy and Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. boosted the total.

``Tech is going to continue to be challenged for a period of time,'' Miscioscia, who has a neutral rating on IBM shares, said in an interview. ``To put this in perspective, IBM is up $2 after market, not $10, after falling about $20 since Oct. 1.''

Google handled 63 percent of U.S. online searches in August, double the market share of Yahoo! Inc. and Microsoft Corp. combined. That dominance has helped the company command higher prices for ads, according to Yahoo, which is awaiting government approval of an agreement to let Google sell some ads on its sites.

Cutting Back

Still, Google has reduced expenses by slowing its hiring rate and spending less on travel and events, said co-founder Sergey Brin.

``We don't know exactly what the future holds. We've taken a conservative approach,'' Brin said in an interview. ``We view this as an opportunity to refine our company and sharpen it.''

Capital expenditures fell to $452 million, down 18 percent from a year earlier, as Google made more efficient use of its computing centers, Brin said. He said he couldn't forecast whether the costs would continue to fall.

The credit crisis may cost the Internet ad market $6.7 billion in lost sales through 2010, according to Collins Stewart Plc. Big and small businesses, from General Motors Corp. to Simplexity LLC, are reducing ad spending plans, while some financial companies, such as Wachovia Corp., have disappeared.

Slower Growth?

The reductions will push down growth in U.S. Internet ad spending to less than 20 percent next year for the first time since 2002, said Sandeep Aggarwal, a Collins Stewart analyst in San Francisco. Advertisers will scale back spending on newspapers and broadcast TV networks, his firm said this month.

``Advertisers stay with the Internet because it's the way to reach the key younger demographic and that's what advertisers are really after,'' Timothy Ghriskey, chief investment officer at Solaris Asset Management LLC, said in an interview from Bedford Hills, New York.

Google, which gets almost all its revenue from Internet searches, is developing ways to advertise with images and video. The company struck a deal this month to show full-length programs from CBS Corp. on its YouTube site, splitting ad revenue with the network.

``The economic situation is so fluid that we're all sort of in uncharted territory,'' Chief Executive Officer Eric Schmidt said yesterday on a conference call. ``We've always been in this for the long term, and we believe that's even more important today than ever.''

Bottomline:
Google perhaps has the best business model - best of both worlds - when times are tough, and the economy is recessionary, advertisers market on Google and other search engines because they offer better value, better tracking and tighter budget controls. On the other hand, when the economy does improve, more advertisers will market more on Google because they simply have more money to spend. The only question is the rate of growth. But if Google can maintain 20% or better earnings and revenue growth in these trying times, this is simply remarkable. Innovation Index Group is long on Google, and is setting a revised target of $500 in 12 months.

Innovation Index Reports

About The Innovation Index

The Innovation Index introduced in December 2006 is a weighted stock price index of the top 20 Innovators in North America.

The Innovation Index returned 66% in 2007 based on performance model, and would have returned 174% over the previous five years (2002-2006) based on historical model*. This assumes equal investment in each stock of The Innovation Index as of December 31, 2001. An average of $100 invested in The Innovation Index on December 31, 2001 returned $454 as of December 31, 2007. By comparison, $100 invested in S & P 500 returned 28% or $129, $100 invested in NASDAQ returned 34% or $136, and $100 invested in the Dow Jones Index returned 30% or $131 through December 31, 2007. The Innovation Index beats the S & P 500, NASDAQ and Dow Jones Index by more than seven times over the past six years.*

Alphabetical list of the Top 20 Innovators of The Innovation Index for 2008 and their stock ticker symbols:

3M Company - (NYSE: MMM)
Amazon.com, Inc. - (NASDAQ: AMZN)
America Movil - (NYSE: AMX)
Apple Inc. - (NASDAQ: AAPL)
AT&T Inc. - (NYSE: T)
Best Buy Co., Inc. - (NYSE: BBY)
Cisco Systems, Inc. - (NASDAQ: CSCO)
Costco Wholesale Corporation - (NASDAQ: COST)
eBay Inc. - (NASDAQ: EBAY)
General Electric Co. - (NYSE: GE)
Google Inc. - (NASDAQ: GOOG)
Hewlett-Packard Co. - (NYSE: HPQ)
Intel Corporation - (NASDAQ: INTC)
International Business Machines Corp. - (NYSE: IBM)
Merck & Co., Inc. - (NYSE: MRK)
McDonald's Corporation (NYSE: MCD)
Microsoft Corporation - (NASDAQ: MSFT)
NIKE, Inc. - (NYSE: NKE)
Research In Motion Limited - (NASDAQ: RIMM)
The Proctor & Gamble Company - (NYSE: PG)

The Innovation Index will analyze the positions and standings of the Top 20 Innovators at the end of each year. For 2008, there will be no further changes in The Innovation Index.

Disclaimer: The Innovation Index Group, Inc. invests in the stocks comprising The Innovation Index.
*Past Performance Does Not Guarantee Future Results


References:

Bloomberg story reported by: Crayton Harrison in Dallas at tharrison5@bloomberg.net; Lauren Berry in New York at lberry4@bloomberg.net

Sunday, July 13, 2008

To Sell Or Not To Sell? You Decide.

If you are an investor in the stock market or real estate, are you considering selling your investments because of the current market conditions?

The major U.S. indices are down more than 20% from the recent peak set in October, 2007 - officially marking the return of the Bear market. Oil is more than $145 a barrel, and showing a real impact at the gas station when you take your car for a fill-up. Real estate prices are back to 2004 levels, or perhaps even 2003 or 2002. Foreclosures, Short sales, Auctions and Loan Defaults are accelerating, and going through the roof. Countrywide, the nation's largest home lender, was acquired by Bank of America earlier in the year; then it was Bear Sterns that had one last gasp, before getting a bail-out from JP Morgan and Federal Reserve; last Friday, IndyMac, one of the largest lenders in the nation and California, went bankrupt and closed doors. And there are rumors on whether Freddie and Fannie will survive through this mess. Oh my!

Your hard-earned money has perhaps lost 10%, 20%, 30% or even more than 50% owing to investments in the stock market or real estate.

What do you do?

Do you sell or hold on to your investments? Or do you double down?

This is perhaps the toughest question you would need to answer.

History shows that markets go through cycles of expansion, peak, contraction, consolidation, expansion, peak.... bull markets and bear markets. For instance, after the dot-com meltdown, we had an unprecedented boom that began in 2002 and lasted through 2007 - over five years. The bear market had lasted about two years prior to that. Whereas the last bear market had to do with the collapse from the dot-com euphoria and companies who lacked fundamentals, the current bear market is driven by larger macro-economic factors impacting the nation whole.

Fundamentally, except for the financial companies who had exposure to mortgages and sub-primes, most of the sectors are doing equal or better than they did in 2007. This is HUGE! However, Wall Street's business is driven by finance - and when the going was good, many Wall Street firms doubled up on the risky bets of the derivatives, sub-primes and mortgages. And they paid a dear price! The smart firms such as Goldman Sachs actually made money. Now some of the Wall Street firms want to save their face, and also make up for the huge losses. One way to do this is spread fear, talk the bear talk, get inside the investors' psyche, bet down the entire market - and make money as the markets go down. Someone has to panic as markets go down - the ones who panic the most are not the large Wall Street firms - instead, they are the individual investors who can't stomach the losses on their portfolio, and sell out while the chips are down. While the individual investors are selling at lowered prices, large hedge funds and institutions are making money.

So should you sell out now, or wait?

If you have invested in companies with great fundamentals, solid operations, sound management, and if these companies are still growing or holding steady in these tough economic times, you should have the strength of conviction and hold on to your investments. Just ask two questions - are they going to be around tomorrow, and are they going to be stronger than what they are today? Perhaps, you want to invest more if you believe in their future.

What are some of these top companies? GE, P&G, 3M, IBM, Apple, HP, Intel, J&J are just a few companies who have withstood economic and market downturns for the past decades. Newer bell-weathers include Cisco, Microsoft, McDonald's, Costco, Nike, Amazon.com, eBay, the new AT&T, RIM, Google and more.

An often repeated stock market mantra is to "sell in May and go away." One often forgotten fact is historically the market has performed differently - "better" - in presidential election years.

A recent chart by Chart of the Day details the performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average in election years.


With the 2008 presidential campaign now in full swing, today's chart illustrates how the stock market has performed during the average election year. Whether the average election year is measured from 1980 or 1900, the market has tended to struggle during the first five months of an election year. That initial subpar performance was then followed with a rally (on average) right up to the November election. One theory to support this election year stock market behavior is that the first five months of choppiness is due in part to the uncertainty of the outcome of the presidential election (the market abhors uncertainty) with the market beginning to rally as the outcome of the election becomes increasingly evident.
If some of your other investments are making money, it may be a good idea to balance them with the ones that are losing money towards the end of the year.

To Sell or Not to Sell? You Decide.

About Innovation Index Group:

Innovation Index Group, Inc. is a new research company focused on systematically identifying, tracking, researching and reporting on the most innovative publicly traded companies in North America – collectively called the Innovation Index. Over the past six years, the Innovation Index would have generated a gross average annual return of 40% based on historical model.*

The Innovation Index Reports:
Introducing The Innovation Index - Learn about the Innovation Index
Innovation Index Group BUY Recommendations - 2008 BUY Recommendations and Estimates
Q1 2008 Report - Innovation Index ahead of S&P 500 - Q1, 2008 Report
The Innovation Index closes 2007 at 66% - 2007 Annual Report on the Innovation Index
Top 50 Innovative Companies in the world
- 2007 Report on Top 50 Innovative Companies
Annual Report - Chapter One - Total Innovation Activity
- 2006 Annual Report One
Annual Report - Chapter Two - The Top Innovator
- 2006 Annual Report Two
Annual Report - Chapter Three - The Innovation Insights
- 2006 Annual Report Insights
Innovation and Stock Performance Correlation
- The Innovation Index and Stock Performance
Future earnings guidance, A leading indicator - Earnings Guidance and Stock Price
Smart Investing In Tough Economic Times - Guide to Prudent, Value Investing

About The Innovation Index

The Innovation Index introduced in December 2006 is a weighted stock price index of the top 20 Innovators in North America.

The Innovation Index returned 66% in 2007 based on performance model, and would have returned 174% over the previous five years (2002-2006) based on historical model*. This assumes equal investment in each stock of The Innovation Index as of December 31, 2001. An average of $100 invested in The Innovation Index on December 31, 2001 returned $454 as of December 31, 2007. By comparison, $100 invested in S & P 500 returned 28% or $129, $100 invested in NASDAQ returned 34% or $136, and $100 invested in the Dow Jones Index returned 30% or $131 through December 31, 2007. The Innovation Index beats the S & P 500, NASDAQ and Dow Jones Index by more than seven times over the past six years.*

Alphabetical list of the Top 20 Innovators of The Innovation Index for 2008 and their stock ticker symbols:

3M Company - (NYSE: MMM)
Amazon.com, Inc. - (NASDAQ: AMZN)
America Movil - (NYSE: AMX)
Apple Inc. - (NASDAQ: AAPL)
AT&T Inc. - (NYSE: T)
Best Buy Co., Inc. - (NYSE: BBY)
Cisco Systems, Inc. - (NASDAQ: CSCO)
Costco Wholesale Corporation - (NASDAQ: COST)
eBay Inc. - (NASDAQ: EBAY)
General Electric Co. - (NYSE: GE)
Google Inc. - (NASDAQ: GOOG)
Hewlett-Packard Co. - (NYSE: HPQ)
Intel Corporation - (NASDAQ: INTC)
International Business Machines Corp. - (NYSE: IBM)
Merck & Co., Inc. - (NYSE: MRK)
McDonald's Corporation (NYSE: MCD)
Microsoft Corporation - (NASDAQ: MSFT)
NIKE, Inc. - (NYSE: NKE)
Research In Motion Limited - (NASDAQ: RIMM)
The Proctor & Gamble Company - (NYSE: PG)

The Innovation Index will analyze the positions and standings of the Top 20 Innovators at the end of each year. For 2008, there will be no further changes in The Innovation Index.

Disclaimer: The Innovation Index Group, Inc. invested in the stocks comprising The Innovation Index.
*Past Performance Does Not Guarantee Future Results

References:
Source: Sphere: Related Content David Templeton, CFA