Innovator Google is still growing strong

Google delivered big this week!! And so did IBM earlier in the week. Apple is next and P&G to follow... our innovators are growing strong in tough economy. When the going gets tough, the tough get going! Google shares were up after earnings release!!

In a separate story, Warren Buffett came out telling everyone to BUY for the long-term:

Buffett's optimism is based primarily on the following:

• "Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors."
• Cash is trash. "Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable," he writes. "They shouldn't. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value."

Here is an analysis on Google and IBM:

Google Inc., owner of the most popular Internet search engine, advanced in Nasdaq trading after reporting profit that topped analysts' estimates, saying customers are still buying Web ads even as the economy slows. (Bloomberg reference)

While advertisers of home and auto loans cut back, makers of apparel and appliances kept spending, Chief Financial Officer Patrick Pichette said. Consumers continue to shop online, he said, with clicks on ads climbing 18 percent, near the previous quarter's 19 percent growth.

Google results, combined with better-than-anticipated reports from International Business Machines Corp. cheered investors after a decline in technology shares this month. Google showed resilience in a weakening economy, said Mark May, an analyst at Needham & Co. in New York.

``This really shows we need to give them the benefit of the doubt,'' said May, who recommends buying the shares (of Google). ``They should be able to weather the storm fairly well.''

Google's third-quarter net income rose 26 percent to $1.35 billion, or $4.24 a share, from $1.07 billion, or $3.38, a year earlier. Leaving out costs such as stock-based compensation, profit was $4.92 a share, beating the $4.75 average estimate of analysts in a Bloomberg survey.

Google, based in Mountain View, California, rose $18.03, or 5.1 percent, to $371.05 on the Nasdaq Stock Market at 9:50 a.m. New York time, after earlier reaching $378.97. The shares had dropped 49 percent this year before today.

Advertising Shift

Advertisers are cutting back on TV and print media spending in favor of ads that run alongside search listings. The Internet will account for 8.7 percent of the $284 billion in U.S. ad spending this year, up from 7.2 percent in 2007, according to Barclays Capital.

Excluding revenue passed on to partner sites, Google's sales expanded to $4.04 billion last quarter. Total revenue climbed 31 percent to $5.54 billion.

At least eight analysts had reduced their estimates for Google's third quarter this month after the global credit crisis erupted. That made it easier for the company to beat the average profit estimates yesterday.

``This was exactly the kind of shot in the arm that investors need,'' said Jeff Lindsay, an analyst with Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. in New York. ``People lost a lot of faith in the Internet, but this is exactly what the doctor ordered.''

New Contracts

IBM, based in Armonk, New York, said yesterday it signed $12.7 billion in contracts last quarter, topping the estimate of as much as $11 billion from Cowen & Co. analyst Louis Miscioscia. Winning contracts with the Royal Dutch Navy and Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. boosted the total.

``Tech is going to continue to be challenged for a period of time,'' Miscioscia, who has a neutral rating on IBM shares, said in an interview. ``To put this in perspective, IBM is up $2 after market, not $10, after falling about $20 since Oct. 1.''

Google handled 63 percent of U.S. online searches in August, double the market share of Yahoo! Inc. and Microsoft Corp. combined. That dominance has helped the company command higher prices for ads, according to Yahoo, which is awaiting government approval of an agreement to let Google sell some ads on its sites.

Cutting Back

Still, Google has reduced expenses by slowing its hiring rate and spending less on travel and events, said co-founder Sergey Brin.

``We don't know exactly what the future holds. We've taken a conservative approach,'' Brin said in an interview. ``We view this as an opportunity to refine our company and sharpen it.''

Capital expenditures fell to $452 million, down 18 percent from a year earlier, as Google made more efficient use of its computing centers, Brin said. He said he couldn't forecast whether the costs would continue to fall.

The credit crisis may cost the Internet ad market $6.7 billion in lost sales through 2010, according to Collins Stewart Plc. Big and small businesses, from General Motors Corp. to Simplexity LLC, are reducing ad spending plans, while some financial companies, such as Wachovia Corp., have disappeared.

Slower Growth?

The reductions will push down growth in U.S. Internet ad spending to less than 20 percent next year for the first time since 2002, said Sandeep Aggarwal, a Collins Stewart analyst in San Francisco. Advertisers will scale back spending on newspapers and broadcast TV networks, his firm said this month.

``Advertisers stay with the Internet because it's the way to reach the key younger demographic and that's what advertisers are really after,'' Timothy Ghriskey, chief investment officer at Solaris Asset Management LLC, said in an interview from Bedford Hills, New York.

Google, which gets almost all its revenue from Internet searches, is developing ways to advertise with images and video. The company struck a deal this month to show full-length programs from CBS Corp. on its YouTube site, splitting ad revenue with the network.

``The economic situation is so fluid that we're all sort of in uncharted territory,'' Chief Executive Officer Eric Schmidt said yesterday on a conference call. ``We've always been in this for the long term, and we believe that's even more important today than ever.''

Bottomline:
Google perhaps has the best business model - best of both worlds - when times are tough, and the economy is recessionary, advertisers market on Google and other search engines because they offer better value, better tracking and tighter budget controls. On the other hand, when the economy does improve, more advertisers will market more on Google because they simply have more money to spend. The only question is the rate of growth. But if Google can maintain 20% or better earnings and revenue growth in these trying times, this is simply remarkable. Innovation Index Group is long on Google, and is setting a revised target of $500 in 12 months.

Innovation Index Reports

• Introducing The Innovation Index
• Annual Report 2007 - The Innovation Index gains 66%
• Measuring Business Innovation Success
• Innovation Index Group BUY Recommendations
• Q1 2008 Report - Innovation Index ahead of S&P 500
• Q2 2008 Report - Top Innovators Deliver
• The Innovation Index Fund FAQ
• Top 50 Innovative Companies in the world
• Annual Report - Chapter One - Total Innovation Activity
• Annual Report - Chapter Two - The Top Innovator
• Annual Report - Chapter Three - The Innovation Insights
• Innovation and Stock Performance Correlation
• Future earnings guidance, A leading indicator
• Smart Investing In Tough Economic Times
• To Sell Or Not To Sell - You Decide
• Creativity and Innovation Best Practices
• Creativity and Innovation Case Studies

About The Innovation Index

The Innovation Index introduced in December 2006 is a weighted stock price index of the top 20 Innovators in North America.

The Innovation Index returned 66% in 2007 based on performance model, and would have returned 174% over the previous five years (2002-2006) based on historical model*. This assumes equal investment in each stock of The Innovation Index as of December 31, 2001. An average of $100 invested in The Innovation Index on December 31, 2001 returned $454 as of December 31, 2007. By comparison, $100 invested in S & P 500 returned 28% or $129, $100 invested in NASDAQ returned 34% or $136, and $100 invested in the Dow Jones Index returned 30% or $131 through December 31, 2007. The Innovation Index beats the S & P 500, NASDAQ and Dow Jones Index by more than seven times over the past six years.*

Alphabetical list of the Top 20 Innovators of The Innovation Index for 2008 and their stock ticker symbols:

3M Company - (NYSE: MMM)
Amazon.com, Inc. - (NASDAQ: AMZN)
America Movil - (NYSE: AMX)
Apple Inc. - (NASDAQ: AAPL)
AT&T Inc. - (NYSE: T)
Best Buy Co., Inc. - (NYSE: BBY)
Cisco Systems, Inc. - (NASDAQ: CSCO)
Costco Wholesale Corporation - (NASDAQ: COST)
eBay Inc. - (NASDAQ: EBAY)
General Electric Co. - (NYSE: GE)
Google Inc. - (NASDAQ: GOOG)
Hewlett-Packard Co. - (NYSE: HPQ)
Intel Corporation - (NASDAQ: INTC)
International Business Machines Corp. - (NYSE: IBM)
Merck & Co., Inc. - (NYSE: MRK)
McDonald's Corporation (NYSE: MCD)
Microsoft Corporation - (NASDAQ: MSFT)
NIKE, Inc. - (NYSE: NKE)
Research In Motion Limited - (NASDAQ: RIMM)
The Proctor & Gamble Company - (NYSE: PG)

The Innovation Index will analyze the positions and standings of the Top 20 Innovators at the end of each year. For 2008, there will be no further changes in The Innovation Index.

Disclaimer: The Innovation Index Group, Inc. invests in the stocks comprising The Innovation Index.
*Past Performance Does Not Guarantee Future Results

References:

Bloomberg story reported by: Crayton Harrison in Dallas at tharrison5@bloomberg.net; Lauren Berry in New York at lberry4@bloomberg.net