Thursday, October 23, 2008

Innovator Apple grows strong on surging iPhone demand

Apple profits are up 26% on iPhone boom. Apple shares were up 14% in after hours after Apple announced the earnings report. IIG is in excellent shape with Apple!

The best part of Apple earnings: CEO Steve Jobs attended the earnings call (which is quite rare), and had this to say:

Earnings Call: Jobs Says iPhone Revs Total $4.6B, Making Apple The Third-Largest Handset Maker

Apple (NasdaqGS: AAPL - News) CEO Steve Jobs made a special guest appearance on the company's earnings call to brag about the iPhone's stellar fourth-quarter performance, and to give his two-cents on how the consumer-electronics and computer company will be affected by the economic crisis as we head into the holiday shopping season. First, Apple's CFO Peter Oppenheimer explained Apple's new practice going forward of reporting non-GAAP financial results. Because the iPhone and Apple TV may provide free updates in the future, they are forced to spread out revenues for the devices over their lifetimes. Going forward, Apple will also report a non-GAAP financial measure that allows people to see how well the iPhone and Apple sales are currently doing. Under this new form of reporting, Oppenheimer said adjusted sales totaled $11.7 billion, or about $3.8 billion higher than its reported revenue, and adjusted net income was $2.4 billion, jumping by $1.3 billion than reported net income. "We believe this adds transparency to our business, and is helpful to you." Oppenheimer said because of the uncertainty in the market, they are going to be prudent in predicting results for the September quarter. He said Apple is targeting revenue of $9 to $10 billion and earnings per share between $1.06 and $1.35.

In a rare appearance, Steve Jobs joined the conference call to provide his outlook on the economy and detail the iPhone's Q4 performance. Jobs: "There's some remarkable things happening at Apple, but now it's all being done in front of the back drop of the economic global slowdown." Notes from the call, as reported by PaidContent.org :

-- On iPhone growth: Using the non-GAAP figures, Jobs said in the past quarter, the iPhone business has grown to $4.6 billion, representing 39 percent of Apple's overall revenues. "Clearly, it's too big for Apple or investors to ignore. The non-GAAP results are truly stunning." He said adjusted sales for the quarter are 48 percent higher than GAAP sales, and adjusted net income is 115 percent higher than reported net income. "It's more than double than reported net income...If this isn't stunning than I don't know what is, and it's all because of the success of the iPhone 3G."

-- On volume: Jobs said by selling 6.9 million iPhones during the quarter, Apple was able to beat RIM (NasdaqGS: RIMM - News), which sold 6.1 million Blackberry devices. "Apple outsold RIM last quarter. This is a milestone," considering Apple has only been in the market for 15 months.

-- Ranking by revenues: Jobs now claims that by revenues, Apple is the third largest mobile phone supplier in the world. Nokia (NYSE: NOK - News), is No. 1 at $12.7 billion; Samsung is No. 2 at $5.98 billion; Apple is No. 3 at $4.6 billion; Sony (NYSE: SNE - News) Ericsson (NasdaqGS: ERIC - News) is No. 4 at $4.2 billion; LG (SEO: 066570), No. 5, at $3.4 billion; Motorola (NYSE: MOT - News), No. 6, at $3.2 billion and RIM, No. 7, at $2.1 billion. "It's pretty amazing," but Jobs cautioned that they were able to sell that many by increasing the number of countries to 51 from 6, and that it's unclear if they can sustain that pace.

-- On the App Store: Jobs said tomorrow they will achieve the 200 millionth download from the App store after being available for only 102 days. "This is one area where we have completely changed the value proposition for mobile devices...We've never seen anything like this." Today, the App store has roughly 5,500 apps, which are being distributed in 62 countries. "Competitors are scrambling to copy our app store."

-- On the economy: Jobs told analysts and press on the call that they believe they will do fine because they have have good customers, good products, good employees, and $25 billion in cash and zero debt. Jobs: We will increase our R&D investments because they created some of the best products in the last downturn. "It is an extraordinary opportunity for companies that have the cash."

Apple shipped 2,611,000 Macintosh(R) computers during the quarter, representing 21 percent unit growth and 17 percent revenue growth over the year-ago quarter. The Company sold 11,052,000 iPods during the quarter, representing eight percent unit growth and three percent revenue growth over the year-ago quarter. Quarterly iPhone units sold were 6,892,000 compared to 1,119,000 in the year-ago-quarter.

Bottomline:
Apple revenue are up 27% and earnings are up 27% from prior year. Gross margin was 34.7 percent, up from 33.6 percent in the year-ago quarter. International sales accounted for 41 percent of the quarter's revenue. Traditionally, the last quarter of the year is Apple's best quarter. Considering the current economic downturn, even with a 20% conservative revenue and earnings growth, Apple will deliver $11.5 billion in revenue, and $1.89 billion in earnings; however, Apple is only providing guidance of $9 billion to $10 billion in revenue, and a broad range in earnings. Apple is definitely "low-balling" the guidance because of the current economy. Apple iPhone is a money making machine, and the iPhone will have even a greater impact on the earnings and revenue for the next quarter owing to Apple's accounting. Expect Apple to deliver another strong quarter, unless the economy completely unbuckles. Innovation Index Group has a BUY rating on Apple, and has a 12 month price target in the range of $160 to $190.

Innovation Index Reports

About The Innovation Index

The Innovation Index introduced in December 2006 is a weighted stock price index of the top 20 Innovators in North America.

The Innovation Index returned 66% in 2007 based on performance model, and would have returned 174% over the previous five years (2002-2006) based on historical model*. This assumes equal investment in each stock of The Innovation Index as of December 31, 2001. An average of $100 invested in The Innovation Index on December 31, 2001 returned $454 as of December 31, 2007. By comparison, $100 invested in S & P 500 returned 28% or $129, $100 invested in NASDAQ returned 34% or $136, and $100 invested in the Dow Jones Index returned 30% or $131 through December 31, 2007. The Innovation Index beats the S & P 500, NASDAQ and Dow Jones Index by more than seven times over the past six years.*

Alphabetical list of the Top 20 Innovators of The Innovation Index for 2008 and their stock ticker symbols:

3M Company - (NYSE: MMM)
Amazon.com, Inc. - (NASDAQ: AMZN)
America Movil - (NYSE: AMX)
Apple Inc. - (NASDAQ: AAPL)
AT&T Inc. - (NYSE: T)
Best Buy Co., Inc. - (NYSE: BBY)
Cisco Systems, Inc. - (NASDAQ: CSCO)
Costco Wholesale Corporation - (NASDAQ: COST)
eBay Inc. - (NASDAQ: EBAY)
General Electric Co. - (NYSE: GE)
Google Inc. - (NASDAQ: GOOG)
Hewlett-Packard Co. - (NYSE: HPQ)
Intel Corporation - (NASDAQ: INTC)
International Business Machines Corp. - (NYSE: IBM)
Merck & Co., Inc. - (NYSE: MRK)
McDonald's Corporation (NYSE: MCD)
Microsoft Corporation - (NASDAQ: MSFT)
NIKE, Inc. - (NYSE: NKE)
Research In Motion Limited - (NASDAQ: RIMM)
The Proctor & Gamble Company - (NYSE: PG)

The Innovation Index will analyze the positions and standings of the Top 20 Innovators at the end of each year. For 2008, there will be no further changes in The Innovation Index.

Disclaimer: The Innovation Index Group, Inc. invests in the stocks comprising The Innovation Index.
*Past Performance Does Not Guarantee Future Results



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