What’s the key finding of the research and why?
Yankee Group forecasts sales of eReader devices to rise from 6 million units in 2010 to a little over 19 million units sold in 2013.
Revenue from the sale of these devices will similarly catch fire, sparking from $1.3 billion in revenue in 2010 to $2.5 billion by 2013.
Additionally, by 2013 the U.S. ebook reader sales will reach 19.2 million, a CAGR of 34 percent, with 6 million ebook readers sold in 2010 alone.
The U.S. installed base of ebook readers will hit over 36 million, up from an installed base of 9 million by 2011.
Half of all consumers who indicate interest in buying an ebook reader will have bought one already, so device makers should act quickly.
"Our forecast is built around a model that factors in the effects of price elasticity, network effects and adoption risk and is loosely based on product diffusion models developed by Everett Rogers and Frank Bass." - Dmitriy Molchanov, an analyst at Yankee Group, regarding the research firm’s new study, “Yankee Group’s US EBook Reader Forecast: Kindling a Fire”Apple (AAPL) is set to launch the iPad on April 3, 2010... at unbelievable pricing:
"With iPad, you get all our latest innovations. And all our most advanced technologies. In one of the most revolutionary products we’ve ever created. All at a price that’s well within reach."
iPad Type 16GB 32GB 64GB
Wi-Fi $499 $599 $699
Wi-Fi + 3G $629 $729 $829
Neither recession nor gadget overload shall slow the mania surrounding the introduction of Apple's iPad mobile computer.
On Friday, the first day that buyers could pre-order the device (it arrives in stores next month), Apple racked up an estimated 91,000 sales in just the first six hours of availability, putting temporarily to rest the Internet's persistent "iPad fail" meme. Analysts predict the first-year sales could reach 5 million.
Engadget.com asked its tech-savvy readers whether they planned to buy an iPad, which starts at $499. The result: Nearly 19 percent of 60,000 respondents said yes; 65 percent were negative; and 16 percent clicked "What's an iPad?"
New Survey Shows Huge Wave of Apple iPad Demand Striking Amazon
A ChangeWave survey of 3,171 consumers – conducted in the aftermath of that Apple announcement (Feb 1-10) – shows a huge wave of pre-launch demand for the iPad and offers key evidence that the Apple tablet will have a major impact on the e-Reader, laptop and home entertainment markets.
Moreover, the survey shows Amazon (AMZN) and its e-Reader competitors are poised to take a big hit early on from the iPad's entry into their market.
The survey shows the Apple iPad is now poised to capture an astonishing 40% of the e-Reader market going forward in the first 90 days after its launch.
Bottomline:
According to Yankee Group, there will be at least 6 million eBook readers sold in 2010 (this survey was done before the Apple iPad announcement & launch). If Apple takes 40% of the market share, Apple will sell at least 2.4 million iPads in 2010 - new business worth at least $1.2 billion in the first year of launch - WOW! However, this is assuming the eBook reader market grows according to the baseline forecasts by Yankee. In all likelihood, the eBook readers market will grow much faster, rather ignite exponentially, with the introduction of iPad. Apple will create a new category of devices that combine eBook readers, multi-media players, web browsers, music players & more. Apple is poised to sell at least 4 million iPads in 2010, thereby creating yet another successful, disruptive aka killer innovation! Only Apple knows best how to create new businesses that grow from 0 to $1 billion plus in less than one year... this is simply AMAZING!
What does this mean for Amazon & Kindle? Would ipad relegate Kindle to second place, and deliver a knock-out punch? If history is a guide (and considering what Apple did with iPod and then with iPhone), Amazon has got to be worried... What will be Amazon's answer to iPad?
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