Eyet Blogs: Seven Days to Apple iPhone Launch

Apple Inc.'s iPhone was a top choice in a survey of people who plan to buy an advanced mobile phone in the next three months, a sign the new device may take market share from rivals.
The survey by ChangeWave Research found that 26 percent of likely buyers would choose the iPhone, a combination mobile phone and iPod that will go on sale June 29. It was tied for first place with Research In Motion Ltd.'s BlackBerry. The research firm asked 3,489 U.S. consumers if they planned to buy an advanced mobile phone, and if so, what brand they would choose.
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) , based in Cupertino, California, is betting the iPhone's features such as a touch screen will lure customers away from the BlackBerry and Palm Inc.'s Treo. The U.S. market for so- called smart phones, which offer e-mail functions, music players and cameras, may grow 43 percent this year to almost $6 billion, according to research firm Strategy Analytics.
"It appears that the Apple iPhone will have a huge impact on the smart-phone market,'' ChangeWave said in the report. The device "poses an enormous challenge to the entire industry.''
ChangeWave, based in Rockville, Maryland, said 7.8 percent of the consumers surveyed planned to buy an advanced phone within the next 90 days. The study was conducted in April.

Bottomline:

If the market of smartphones indeed grows to $6 billion this year, and 26 percent of likely buyers will choose the iPhone, this would translate to $1.56 billion in total revenue for the new iPhone in the first year. At an average sale of $549 per iPhone, the number of new iPhones sold in the first year could eclipse 2.84 million units. Most analysts predict that the first year sales of the new iPhone would be in the range of 3.5 million to 4 million units. This means, that an additional 1 million iPhones will be snapped up by existing iPod owners. With 100 million iPod owners all over the world, 1 million translates to only 1% of the entire population. It is plausible that at least 10% of the iPod owners would buy the new iPhone - this alone creates a market of 10 million new iPhones. The question then is really about the timing. How soon will Apple sell 10 million new iPhones? Would it take only two years, or closer to five years? The success of Apple and the new iPhone will be entirely defined by rapid acceleration of new iPhone sales. Anything less than the sale of a few million iPhones in the first year would be construed a failure.

Eyet Blogs

Friday, June 22, 2007

Seven Days to Apple iPhone Launch - June 29 Liftoff

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