Over-heard at NoVacancy: tweets and chatter from No Vacancy hospitality conference 18 March 2010

Normally it is the end of the year that signals the conference season with TRAVELtech, WebInTravel and PhoCusWright following each other month by month starting in September (note - TRAVELtech is Aug 31 this year rather than usual Sept). But for the BOOT this year the season has started early with adtech, No Vacancy having just wrapped up and Eyefortravel TDS Asia coming up in Singapore on April 28 and 29.

Last week was my first year at No Vacancy. It is part of the same conference stable as Martin Kelly's SearchEngineRoom and TRAVELtech and is targeted at the hospitality industry - all channels - rather than being a purely online or technology conference. I (and others) tweeted our way through No Vacancy under the hashtag #novacancy. Not all of you are on twitter so here in this post are some of the top tweets and quotes I took away from No Vacancy. Here are the the most interesting tweets:

On the market general (Australian bias)

• 2009 hospitality market in Australia according to Dransfield."held up better than expected" "rates down 3%" "revpar down 8.2%". 2010 "good start, expect rate increases" but " lost 40% of capital globally" "another shock could come" They went on "Credit availability + bank conservatism means still shortage of capital" "has hit valuation "av hotel down 20% value"
• Travelclick" gds htl vol in 2009 46mm trans, to 2003 levels". Wonder how much corp bookg decline, how much OTA neg rate growth?

On Online Agents and Intermediaries

• Robbie Cook (Wotif CEO) said "60% of business is direct to site, then organic search, paid is a single digit % of the business". He went on to say that "Wotif saved $2.2mm in costs post travel.com.au business post acquisition."
• Yury Shar Hotelscombined said that "less than 10% of traffic comes from typing in URL direct" "59% of traffic affiliate. Paid 24%, rest organic search" Sam_Linder added in his tweet "@hotelscombined 2 mil visitors pm to 6 mil in last year. Affiliates is primary channel, 15,000 such as skyscanner in uk"
• Latest stats from stayz.com.au "22,400 properties, 270k newsletter subs, 160k bkings/ 650k nts in 2009 (+ 30%yoy)" also advertising revenue

On Hoteliers

• Starwood AsiaPac "2009 -2% in occupancy, -7% ADR for -9% RevPAR in Pacific" "online only channel to grow- branded faster than OTA"
• Starwood "2-3 years to get back to 2007 rate levels" to which robertkcole said "Sorry, Starwood's dreaming if they think it will only take 2-3 years for rates to return to 2007"
• Accor AsiaPac "Occ finished 2009 at 74%. Good but down from all time high in 2007" "price down 6%" revpar down 9%"
• Accor "Online up from 10% of sales in 2005 to 35% planned for 2010" "65% of online sales will be direct up from 50% in 2005"
• Accor "happy with 65% of online business being direct. Won't artificially cap 3rd party distribution or hold back inventory"

Other accom types

• 25-46% of bookings online at "freespirit" (a holiday park/caravan park company). If true for whole sector then parks online larger percentage than hotels

Steve Sherlock of Oodles: the search for funding and the deal with Wotif that almost happened

car rental search site Oodles is part meta-search, part travel agent and part loyal program deal search site. The classic meta-search part is the ability for consumers to search multiple sites in one go. The travel agent part is that Oodles collects commission on paid bookings (when customer pays car company) not on a per click meta-search basis. The interesting loyalty program part is that if you give your Airline or Car frequent flyer number to Oodles, then they will add to the search results specialist loyalty program deals. Means that a person who is both a Velocity frequent flyer (Virgin Blue), Qantas Frequent Flyer and Hertz Gold Club member will see an integrated display including special deals from Europcar (Virgin partner), Avis (Qantas) and Hertz as well as other deals from Thrifty. This is a great and - as far as I can tell - a unique offering in car rental and meta-search generally.

I was talking about Oodles today with Founder and MD Steve Sherlock. Steve and Oodles are in the middle of a search for a new round of funding. In a true web 2.0 fashion Steve is blogging his way through the experience in series of "diary of an entrepreneur raising capital" entries over at the anthill website. Included is a story about how Oodles was almost acquired by Australian online travel giant Wotif.com. It is an interesting series of diary notes and a recommended read.

I like the different angle that Oodles has taken from others. Allows consumers to see a display of a combination of inventory (loyalty program discounted and regular) that I have not seen on any other online travel site. Oodles already have the car rental traffic lead in Australia so appear to be executing well. The challenge for them is the constant start-up problem in Australia - finding the funding to continue to feed the growth.

Qantas to Amadeus – what the hell was that???!?

In 2007 Amadeus and Qantas were riding high. A joy filled press release heralded that their relationship would bloom for another ten years. The then CIO John Willett was full of praise saying

"The development of Altéa [Amadeus' airline customer management system], which has become the leading customer management solution for airlines, has been a milestone for the industry and we expect that the next 10 years will help us to innovate further,"

A year later there was a new CIO at Qantas (Jamila Gordon) and the good times continued. The companies announced that the Altéa system was fully implemented. Gordon was filled with the joy and expectation that can only be found in press releases

"Exceptional customer service is a key competitive weapon and you can only deliver this by understanding the needs of individuals which is what the integrated Altéa system provides." She added, "As the operating environment for airlines gets tougher, it is essential that technology is able to both deliver greater operational efficiency as well as support the implementation of policies that build customer loyalty and drive increased revenues."

Remember those words “deliver greater operational efficiency”.

Fast forward to Jan 3 2010 and the Amadeus and Qantas bromance took a blow (though it does not look fatal) when the Amadeus Altéa system appeared to suffer a world wide hour long blue screen of death crash-a-doodle-do. Automated check-in came crashing down. Customers were stuck and airline crews abused. Qantas firstly called it “intermittent” (SMH) . But later an ABC commentator found out that the system had crashed on three separate occasions during the outage period. Delays, angry customers and twitter rant–a-thons ensued.

Unlike the PR love-ins of the previous announcements, Qantas was very happy to very publicly blame the whole thing on Amadeus. Newly appointed Qantas spokesman David Epstein used all of the tact that his former Labour party bosses are famous for by being very polite in his finger pointing but stating clearly and cleanly

"We are seeking assurances this won't happen again,"

(according to a report from the ABC)

The Herald Sun very neatly summed up the response from Amadeus to the blame game “Amadeus could not be reached for comment”. I bet they couldn’t.

Thanks to Aaron Frutman over at Flickr for the phot of Kobe in flight

More Expedia display trials - defaulting to hotel search in Australia

Late last year I shared with you a screenshot showing that Expedia.com.au were trialling a Wotif list like display for hotel results. With the new year I can see that they are trialling a new home page with larger widget and hotels as the default for search. First sale of the year is a 50% off hotels. Is Expedia giving up on Air in Australia? Screenshot below.

Expedia trialling Wotif display format in Australia

Care of a tweet from Kristi Barrow I came across a hotel sort order and search display experiment by Expedia in Australia (expedia.com.au). Below is a screenshot of the new display trial.

As you can see it is a grid approach rather than the typical list and details approach. I am convinced this is only a test as I was only able to get these results in one of four searches I tried. Likely they are doing multi-variant (or A/B) testing here.

You may be wondering why Expedia would trial a new (and arguably less user friendly) display on their Australian site. The reason is because of the market power of Wotif - the largest seller of online hotels in Australia.

In case you have not looked at the Wotif site, they have a very different look and feel to a typical online hotel retailer. Instead of a list of hotels with a lead in room rate, they have a grid that shows all the hotels on the left side, dates at the top and then availability and price in the middle. In other words a dramatic increase in the amount of information shown to a consumer. The sacrifice being depth of hotel information, sort order management and date accuracy (ie a specific date range for a search). It is now standard in Australia but very different to other markets.

By standard I mean it has influenced other players. Local competitors such as needitnow (AOT group) checkin and quickbeds (Fight Centre) have followed suit with this layout. Clearly Expedia has also caught the Wotif bug and is interested in trialling this layout in Australia.

Thanks to Kristi for sending the story around.

Resurrection of ReadyRooms - New life for former Qantas online hotels brand

In July 2004, Qantas proudly announced the launch of ReadyRooms (another announcement story here). An online last minute hotel booking system to take on Wotif, Lastminute.com.au (then owned by travel.com.au now owned by Wotif) and RatestoGo (owned by Orbitz). Then sometime around late 2006 early 2007 the ReadyRooms brand disappeared from Qantas sites. It was replaced with a generic "Qantas Hotels" brand. I noticed the brand confusion in this review post of the Qantas online hotels product.

I have just discovered that the ReadyRooms brand and product is back. I spotted a banner advert for the new site and clicked through. Subsequently I have seen a post over at the Publicis Digital site (an advertising firm) saying that they launched the campaign for the new site on October 21 2009.

This new version of ReadyRooms is not being operated by Qantas. Instead, the brand is part of Jetset Travelworld - Australia's number 3 offline travel company. But this does not mean that Qantas has complete divorced itself from ReadyRooms. In June 2008 Jetset Travelworld bought Qantas Holidays off Qantas in exchange for Qantas taking a 58% stake in Jetset (PDF press release here). The "new" ReadyRooms a look, feel and colouring that is not at all like Qantas so there is a clear desire to establish a new and separate brand. But the search results, pricing and hotels are exactly the same as the Qantas Hotels product. Like the Qantas version Jetset's ReadyRooms charges at $4.95 booking fee (called a credit card fee) [note - no fee charged on debit cards. Just credit cards]. Critically - unlike ReadyRooms, the Qantas version of the product comes with frequent flyer miles. In other words Jetset's ReadyRooms is the same product as the Qantas Hotel's product but with less benefits. Not sure that will work.

Jetset have also launched ReadyFlights to sell air. Clearly Jetset have decided their strategy is to go online with a whole new brand approach to get around frachisee issues.

Guidebook Economist Style: Doing business in Sydney

The Economist is a regular podcast listen of mine. This week "Doing Business in Sydney" by the Economist appeared in my iTunes podcast feed. Is a ten minute Sydney guide by the Economist (odeo player with audio below) covering airport practicalities, business culture, restaurant and hotel recommendations and side trips if you have a moment. Interesting that the Economist is getting into the very crowded guidebook space. As to the content itself as a Sydney native I agreed with most of the recommendations except the comments on the airport.

Comments like

1. "by and large waiting times at immigration are not that onerous"; and
2. '"usually no wait for taxi's" [at the airport].

....are scandalous untruths. A business or leisure traveller to Sydney can be practically 100% guaranteed of great weather, amazing views, entertaining people and a relaxed but serious business environment. Hopefully all that will be enough to help the traveller recover from the endless queues, scans and form checkers of Sydney Airport Immigration, Customs and Quarantine and the most inefficient taxi rank system this side of the sub-continent.

Australia to Open Auto Finance Fund - Sydney

SYDNEY -- Australian Treasurer Wayne Swan said Friday the government will activate from Sept 1. a special fund to provide liquidity for auto dealer financiers encountering difficulties due to the global credit crisis

The government announced last December it would create the special purpose vehicle worth up to 2 billion Australian dollars ($1.66 billion) with the support of country's big four banks -- Commonwealth Bank of Australia, National Australia Bank Ltd., Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. and Westpac Banking Corp.


The government in June lowered the estimated size of the vehicle to around A$550 million, following a better-than-expected functioning of the market and the ability of dealers to secure funds through remaining lenders.

Like in the U.S., scarce credit has hammered Australia's A$7.7 billion auto sector in recent times.

The Australian government decided to establish the auto fund following plans by GE Money, a unit of General Electric Co., and GMAC, to exit the local market, leaving an estimated A$2 billion hole in funding lines to auto dealers. Swan said Friday the so-called OzCar program has helped ensure their orderly withdrawal.

"However, it will still be necessary to activate OzCar so that the remaining GE and GMAC dealerships will have more time to secure ongoing financing," Mr. Swan said in a statement.

"The activation of OzCar will also provide Ford Credit Australia with access to the liquidity required to continue to support its dealerships -- most of which are in regional areas."

Legislation enabling the fund was passed by lawmakers in June.

The fund is backed by the government's AAA sovereign guarantee but the government won't contribute direct funding.

Holden, the Australian unit of General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co. and Toyota Motor Corp. currently manufacture cars in Australia.

Source: WSJ.com

Roamfree misses debt payments and goes into administration (news report)

Queensland based Roamfree has placed itself into voluntary administration according to the goldcoast.com.au. This is confirmed by a filing with ASIC (Australian government body that regulates companies) sent to me by an industry insider. It lists Roamfree Ltd as "* UNDER EXTERNAL ADMINISTRATION and/or CONTROLLER APPOINTED **" dated 24 August 2009.

The broad Roamfree group is a series of online accommodation brands, a channel manager and providers of technologies for tourism companies. Hard to know at this stage which of the business will be affected when. The article says that it does not effect all of the business enterprises under the Roamfree banner as

"The group's subsidiary trading companies, BookEasy Pty Ltd, Roamfree Pacific and majority-owned Tourism Technology, are not affected."

Toursim Technology operates the Calypso system used by many offline companies for inventory management.

As of 930am this morning the main site is still live (screenshot below).

I am always nervous about doing a Roamfree post. One back in April last year resulted in almost 100 comments, many of them unfit to print. That said I would welcome any info you might have as to which business are affected and which are not.

Webjet to relaunch hotels with a GDS backed retail model. Three reasons why I don' think this is the best plan available

Webjet are having a great time selling domestic air in Australia. As we have discussed before their tech leadership in developing the Travel Services Aggregator back in 2004 enabled them to sell multi-carrier domestic air including low cost carriers before anyone else. Even though other sites now have similar functionality, Webjet continues to enjoy customer loyalty and growth (despite charging dramatically higher fees per booking).

The company has made a number of attempts at diversifying their
revenue with land product. In mid 2003 they launched Bookabed as a standalone hotel brand. In 2006 they revamped the product under the new name Lotsofhotels. Then in June 2008 they announced plans to take Lotsofhotels onto the eBay platform. Unfortunately none of these efforts have developed traction in a very competitive market.

In their recent results they announced the launch of new hotel product called "Stay and Pay" (Travel Weekly story here). This new product moves them away from merchant sales to the retail model (consumer pay at the hotel, Webjet collects commission from hotel). They are launching two twists on the retail models you see from big players like Booking.com and Venere. Firstly there is no negotiated inventory. The inventory is drawn from the publicly available rates distributed through a GDS feed from Travelport. Secondly there is a service fee of $10 per booking charged up front by Webjet.

I like the fact that Webjet are trying hotels again. Fees on air make up 97% of their operating revenue (just down from 98% last year). They need to have other revenue streams to compete with packaging experts Expedia and Zuji (Travelocity) and the Wotif group owned air intermediaries Travel.com.au and Lastminute.com.au (not to forget the Orbitz owned hotel only players HotelClub and RatesToGo) [disclosure]. That said there are three reasons why I don' think this is the best way to go about hotels for Webjet:

1. Webjet will struggle for Rate Parity: The GDS companies (Travelport included) have done an admirable job working with the Chains and some independent properties to secure rate parity through GDS distribution. By that I mean working with hotels to have the rates that are loaded in the GDS be on par with the negotiated rates provided to the OTAs. However the rates in the GDS are never cheaper and by charging a $10 booking fee, Webjet will end up with pricing that is almost always more expensive than any other channel. There will be a convenience factor for consumers but this will be at the margins compared to the consumers who will be turned away by the higher price on Webjet;
   
2. Webjet will not have access to important Inventory Types: Again the GDS companies have worked hard to expand the range of hotels and properties available. However there is still a bias towards chains and a bias towards geographies with a history of GDS distribution. This means Webjet will be missing important independent properties and have less coverage in the Asia Pacific, Latin American and Middle East regions than the negotiated hotel agencies and OTA competitors; and
   
3. Webjet will miss out of the the best Specials and Promos: In this "year of the deal", hoteliers are providing deals and promos the likes of which have not been seen since 9/11. Most of these come with conditions, specifically a range of cancellation options ranging up to non-refundable. The GDS is not able to support this functionality as well as the negotiated inventory providers. Means that many of the great deals (especially last minute ones) will not be in the feed accessed by Webjet.

I can understand why Webjet went down this route. It would be very expensive for them to build a hotel contracting team from scratch. Impossible in fact if they wanted to gain coverage outside of Australia. Therefore they need to work with partners to access inventory. However my recommendation would be to work with an inventory provider with negotiated rates rather than the GDS. [disclosure - I work for a company that provides negotiated hotel rates]. It will provide them with a fix to each of the issues above.

The new Stay and Pay product is due for beta-launch today (18 Aug 2009). Will put in a functionality review post later.

Update - make sure you check out the comments where Richard Noon (Webjet CEO) puts his side of the story

Update 2 - I thought of one more reason why this product won't give consumers as good an experience as a negotiated provider will. The room type description and hotel content on the GDS is not as clear or attractive as those from a negotiated provider. Here is an example of a room type for a Sydney hotel in a GDS " PREMIER ROOM CITY VIEW 1 QUEEN OR 2 SGLSNON SMOKING LCD TV HI SPEED INTERNET FOR A FEE".

PS - last year at TRAVELtech Webjet CEO Richard Noon gave his estimates of the turnover of the various Austrlaia online air intemediaries.

Lies, damn lies and statistics about Jetstar

I hate it when Airlines use statistics to tell bald-faced lies and make themselves sound more successful they they deserve to sound. I hate it at a purest marketing level and also because it helps perpetuate consumer mistrust of travel companies.

I came across a piece on TravelWeekly (AU) titled "Jetstar edges out rivals in share battle". Summary of the piece is that the Qantas owned Jetstar is now ahead of Singapore Airlines and Air New Zealand in Australia in term of international market share. This (in theory) puts Jetstar in the number two international carrier spot behind Qantas. Jetstar's share (according to the article) is 9% of the international market in May up from 6.1% the previous year. But over the same period Qantas' share dropped from 26.2% to 22.4%. A large part of the drop in Qantas is because Jetstar flights replaced Qantas flights. A simple carrier for carrier switch by the parent company. Clearly the near 3% lift in Jetstar numbers was helped by the near 4% drop in Qantas carriage share. Jetstar CEO Bruce Buchanan (in his press release on this story) clearly attributes the results to the performance of the airline and does not credit being given free traffic and passengers by Qantas. By "free customers" I mean customers they did not have to earn by marketing to and beating a rival to acquire.

At a conference last year a Jetstar rep put up a graph showing the domestic number passengers that Jetstar was carrying per month since its launch in 2004 and compared that to the number of passengers that Ryanair was carrying four years after its launch. On that comparison Jetstar was way ahead of Ryanair, the clear implication being that Jetstar is a better LCC that Ryanair at this stage of their development. They supplement this on their website by praising themselves for winning awards such as the "Top 5 Carriers for Passenger Growth 2009" award.

However just like international it is unambiguous that Jetstar owe more of their domestic passenger growth to the huge amounts of "free" traffic/passengers they were given from Qantas routes being handed over to Jetstar than to any creative marketing or pricing on Jetstar's part. In fact I would argue that a number of their marketing campaigns would do more to turn customers off the airline rather than on. Whereas Ryanair had to steal/lure away each customer from BA, easyjet, Aer Lingus, Jetstar simply had to wait for the customers to turn up looking for a red rat tail and then resign themselves to being served by people dressed in grey and orange.

I am not arguing that Jetstar is a bad airline. They have a much more enjoyable product offering than Ryanair and other LCCs I have flown. But to celebrate this growth as if they had started from a zero base (like Raynair and Virgin Blue) is disingenuous to say the least.

Am I being too tough of Jetstar? What do you think?

Thanks to StarvingFox at flickr for the photo

GFC presure finally comes to WTF - analyst rates Wotif.com as "under perform"

Wotif Group (ASX:WTF) has been a stand out Australian stock for as long as anyone can remember. Well at least since March 2006 when it burst onto the market at a pre-float price of $2.00 but closing the first day at $3.32. Has been a roller coaster ride since then. The first two years was all up up up, topping out at just below $6 a share. Then early to mid 08 saw a slump back below $3 a share. Recently the stock has rallied with the rest of the market to be around the $4.50 range ($4.50 close yesterday). Throughout that time I have not seen an analyst say a bad word about the stock (despite a P/E ratio in the twenties).

Now today we have a different voice. Senior Analyst at LINWAR securities James Bales has just published a research note on Wotif called "Check Out Time". In that note he sets a target price of $3.70 - 18% less than the current value. I can't share the whole research note with you as that is something LINWAR reserves for the clients but I can share some of the top level conclusions that Bales used to support his rating of Under Perform. Here are some extracts from his conclusions

"WTF trades on a significant premium to our DCF valuation. It also trades on a premium to larger well-performed global online travel peers in an industry which rewards scale.


Industry estimates of Average Daily Rate (ADR) declines are approaching double digit levels worldwide. The decline may be more moderate in Australia but Wotif expected low single digit rate decline in 2H09. Intense rate pressure has meant hotel chains are seeking ways of discounting prices without impacting brand - OTA’s offer this capability.


It appears Asian destination markets are holding up well [for WTF]– eg: Thailand, Bali. Source markets such as China post-Olympics and Japan appear weaker. In these areas global giants have a significant advantage over WTF. WTF is trying to grow an Asian business with no local language capability and just one small existing market (AU/NZ) from which to draw clients."

That said, Bales still supports the profit estimates from Wotif. As he says

"NPAT guidance of at least $42m was in line with our forecasts. This is no surprise given US 1Q09 results from Online Travel Agents (OTA’s). Our forecasts are unchanged, anticipating strong growth in FY10."

I agree with James analysis, especially on international expansion. That said hard to be too negative about a company that just upped its full year forecast.

That do you think? Will there finally be pressure on Wotif coming or is $4.50 a share just fine thank you very much?

Cheapflights.com.au launches in Australia - but this is not meta-search as it should be

It is supposed to be interesting when an international online travel company launches in the land of the barbecuing shrimp. So here I am on staycation leave quietly reading my newsfeed and blog email address when I spot care of m-travel and an email from Steve Sherlock of Oodles that "Cheapflights have launched an Australian and New Zealand version of their site". I should be excited by an international launch in Australia but Cheapflights is not exciting for two reasons.

Firstly, as I said back in July 07 when the rumours first started of Cheapflights coming to town (where 2008 was the planned launch date), this market (online air in Australia) is already too crowded for a domestic market with 2/3 carriers. OTAs like Webjet, Travel.com.au (owned by Wotif), Flight Centre, Expedia, Zuji (Travelocity) and Bestflights and regional meta-search player Wego (part owned by News Corp) are fighting for scraps left over by the online air dominance of the major airline websites (Virgin-Blue, Qantas and the Qantas owned Jetsar). Granted those scraps are getting bigger and bigger but still this is not an easy market to enter. Secondly, the Cheapflights product is simply not good enough to be of value to the consumer.

For those that don't know, Cheapflights is a quasi meta-search company started in the UK way back in 1996. Even describing them as "quasi" is generous because to me the hallmark of a meta-search business is an integrated display of up to date results in one place. The UK version of Cheapflights has the integrated display but the results are not up to date. Have a look at this extract from a London to Paris search

Notice where it says "updated 9 minutes ago" next to the BA quote and "updated 2 days ago" for ebookers. Also have a look at the URL for the page

It is a static landing page - http://www.cheapflights.co.uk/flights/Paris/London/ - rather than a dynamically generated page based on the timings of my specific search. The results are not timely or up-to-date. I clicked on a few of the links and they ended up on either dead search pages or some other destination page where the results did not match the search terms. In short the UK version Cheapflights - the oldest and most established version - does not work on a stand alone basis nor meet the minimum criteria for a meta-search player.

The Australia version of Cheapflights is even worse. It may be just early days for the product but the AU version is many steps behind the UK product which itself is steps behind competitors Kayak and TripAdvisor.

To give them some due, meta-search in Australia is not easy. As I discussed here in a Webjet vs Wego post (another Steve Sherlock tip) it is has proven very difficult to facilitae multi-carrier domestic meta-search in Australia. Wego has tried a work around (again go back to this post for more) but Cheapflights are not even trying. Have a look at this shot below of Cheapflights.com.au

This is the results of a search of Sydney to Melbourne. Rather than being presented with a set of even un-integrated (or disintegrated if you prefer) results I am given four options, four different websites that I can click on. Each click generates a new pop up with search results from the named party. If I want to do what meta-search is supposed to be for - comparing multiple sites - I have to open all four sites and looked at the results one by one. In other words do exactly what we used to do before meta-search came along. In some other words, it adds no value to the standard surfing practices of a regular internet consumer. In some more blunt words, next to useless.

In truth I don't think even Cheapflights think of themselves internally as a meta-search company. They target more of their effort and energies in their Travelzoo style Hot Travel Deals newsletter. Am undecided if there is value here,

Either way I am not predicting success for this product. The product in its current form adds little to the market and the competitors have more money to spend on marketing.

Told you I would get tough again? Am I being too tough?

Expedia Online Advertising in Australia: Sometimes marketing and IT need to talk to each other

Spotted the following online advertisement on the NRMA website (an Australian AAA company) for Expedia. An automobile website is a perfectly good place for a marketing team to buy for a banner campaign.



But the timing of the ad is no good. Someone in IT scheduled an outage and either forgot to tell the marketing team or it was too late. Here is the landing page from clicking on the ad



Oops! Unfortunate waste of advertising money.

TRAVELtech: Travelzoo announce 1 million subscribers in Asia Pacific, 100,000 in Australia

Brad Gurrie - Managing Director for Travelzoo Australia announced today at TRAVELtech that Travelzoo in Asia Pacific have hit the 1 million subscriber mark with 100,000 of those in Australia. Offices now in Australia, Singapore, Taiwan, Japan and Hong Kong.

TRAVELtech: Stayz doing more than $100mm a year. Now valued at $36mm according to Fairfax

James Cassidy - the General Manager of Australian vacation rental listing site Stayz - put a rhetorical question to the Audience. Was it worth it for Fairfax Digital to buy Stayz.com.au?

Fairfax Digital Media bought Stayz back in 2005 for $12.7 million. Cassidy claims that if the same multiple at the time of acquisition were applied to current revenues then Stayz would now be worth $36mm. Here are some of the statistics he shared with us about the business:

• 2007 Transaction Value - $107mm (value off bookings generated for owner/listers);
• Grown from 9.000 properties to 23,000 properties; and
  
• site re-launch generated conversion improvements of 30-40%.

The other interesting comment was that Fairfax Digital had spent a lot of time building a network of links and cross referral points with other sites in the Fairfax Digital network (like newspaper Sydney Morning Herald and vertical classified sites like Domain.com.au). He admitted that this is not about traffic generation. In fact the traffic generation of from these links is very minimal. Instead the value was in the SEO consequences. The network of links from high traffic sites performing different but at least contextual activities is crtical to the SEO activities of Stayz. Cassidy is claiming 80% of the Stayz traffic comes from free/organic search. Supported dramatically by the link network effect of Fairfax Digital.

Assuming this is right it is an amazing story behind media group network effects. That internal banners and buttons and not what the network is about. Instead it is the html code driving links and search traffic. Sounds very close to some of the grey/blackish hat activities I have seen online from travel affiliate companies.

TRAVELtech: Webjet CEO Noon calls the AU market sales of Expedia, Zuji and more

Final speaker of the first session was Webjet CEO Richard Noon. Had a great slide that I was able to quickly copy down to share with you. He showed his estimation of the annual Gross Bookings of major full service OTAs in Australia. Here is that graph as I copied it.

If you are interested in the Australian turnover of Webjet, Expedia, Bestflights, Zuji, Lastminute.com.au, travel.com.au and online for flight centre check it out.



He prepared a formula using comparative page views and PhoCusWright estimates of the Australia online travel market. He took the page views of each of the players locally and then apportioned gross bookings from the PhoCusWright estimates of total Australian OTA sales.

Later during the panel session these numbers were put to each of the bosses of Zuji and Expedia.

Expedia AU MD Arthur Hoffman dismissed the $80mm estimate for Expedia saying that this was a very pessimistic view. That actual number was "far north of that".

Zuji CEO Scott Blume - "took the fifth" when asked about the $30mm estimate. Saying that they do not break out their bookings.

Open Skies between the US and Australia: There is no one I don't hate right now

There is a great line in that brilliant show the West Wing where the ever cranky Toby Ziegler (played by Richard Schiff) turns and says "there's no one I don't hate right now". This is exactly how I feel after hearing about the the new Open Skies agreement between the US and Australia. In theory I should be cheering this agreement. I have complained again and again about the gouging that goes on in the pricing of the Pacific Route (Australia to the west cost US). Up until the open skies agreement only two airlines could fly this route - Qantas and United. Qantas sat on almost seventy percent of the capacity giving them an almost monopoly. They priced accordingly, earning more than 40% in revenue per passenger kilometre than on the Kangaroo route (Australia to the UK). The last time I tried to book a US flight Qantas wanted to charge me more than A$15,o00 for business class. Sure I was booking with just over 2 weeks notice but that is the out and out definition of monopolistic price gouging.

I should be cheering because Open Skies is supposed mean more airlines, more competition and therefore lower prices. But this Open Skies agreement is nothing but window dressing and will do almost nothing to change competition - especially in Business class. The deal is limited to Australian and US carriers. On the Australian side this means the only carriers that can be added are V Australia (Virgin Blue's not yet launched low cost long haul off shoot) and maybe Jetstar (Qantas' own low cost carrier). On the US side it might bring American back to the route but really who cares. As the Sydney Morning Herald points out in its analysis, V Australia are only looking at 10 services a week. Qantas already fly 51 while United only do 14. Therefore only 15% more capacity is being added and effectively all of it in leisure classes. No downward pressure at all on Business Class prices.

The only way to bring true competition to the route and bring down prices is to allow Singapore Airlines, Emirates and Canadian to have access to the route. This would provide a meaningful increase in capacity in all classes of product. The previous conservative/centre right Australian Government and Transport Minister Warren Truss exposed himself as a complete idiot and the only centre right government minister in history to argue that increased competition in a duopoly/monopoly would not be a benefit to consumers when he said

"The economic modelling work [on the Pacific Route] that we have done suggests that the benefits of an airline such as Singapore entering that route would be very, very small to the Australian tourism industry,"

The new centre left Australian Government has gone one better in the stupidity stakes. New transport minister Anthony Albanese is quoted in the SMH article as saying the following

"... he had "no intention" of allowing the two new carriers on the route [Singapore and Canadian], making V Australia the only new carrier expected to enter. "We're serious about liberalising trade, but we're also serious about protecting Australian jobs," he said." (my emphasis)

I had to read this paragraph twice to make sure that I wasn't seeing things. Somehow it is now critical to the overheated Australian employment market for Qantas to be able to gouge its customers and charge 40% more that it should or needs to. Australia is in its sixteenth year of growth and has less that 4% unemployment. Everyone everywhere in the travel industry is struggling to find anybody to meet the huge demand for talent and people. Australian regional carrier Rex has had cut routes because it cannot find enough pilots to actually fly the routes it wants to support. Yet somehow the whole boom would fall apart if Qantas was forced to charge normal prices and face standard and reasonable competition. Baloney.

So Open Skies are here, Qantas is happy, Virgin Blue is happy and the government gets to shout "see how brilliant we are" but somehow I still have to pay exactly the same rip off fares to go the US.

There is no one that I don't hate right now.

UPDATE - you will love this. In Travel Today there is a lead article with commentary from Singapore Airlines heavily criticising the Open Skies deal. Right below it is a story from QantasLink (Qantas' regional airline) complaining that they are going to follow Rex's lead in cutting services due to a "higher than normal pilot attrition rate" (ie NO STAFF). This (presumably unintentionally) completely undermines the comments by the Transport Minister Albanese that there is any job threat at all.

Who's coming to Australia next?

Often it is the job ads the give you the best guidance as to who is launching where when. There was an advertisement in this weekend's paper for this role

General Manager- Global Internet Media Company - Australia Launch!

A unique opportunity exists to launch a new venture for one of the world’s leading online media companies. This NASDAQ listed company, headquartered in New York, is experiencing significant growth and is well positioned for expansion into the Australian market.

The General Manager, Australia will be responsible for launching the business, winning and maintaining key accounts as well as the online consumer. This appointment requires an entrepreneurial leader with a passion for new media and the travel sector....[MORE]

I have a very strong suspicion as to who this is but have a little bit of inside knowledge that I promised not to reveal. What do you think, what's your guess? Either way - interesting to see the Australian market having reached a new stage where a media/advertising supported travel business model is attractive enough to support expansion plans.

UPDATE - the cat is out of the zoo, the role was for Travelzoo and ex-Lastminute.com.au Hotels GM Brad Gurrie got the job